Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Why are there no recipes for peaceful revolutions?


One thing I always wonder about is why there is no "recipe" for secession or technical revolution. Why can't the UN create some fancy committee and it goes over the possible ways a country can peacefully succeed from another or a bloodless coup can happen? You could even create different scenarios like all-out civil war, separatism, technical revolutions etc.

Like a recipe for food, there are certain parts of it. For example, a food recipe has ingredients, preparation, cook time, cooling, serving etc.

For a "secession", the recipe might be -

  • Determine if there's enough evidence to warrant a referendum through polls or petitions.
  • Determine the scope and geographic voting divisions.
  • Determine the threshold required to invoke a secession.
  • Determine the consequences of the vote for secedors and secedees (for example, debt and movable assets).
  • Determine the mechanism of immigration for those that wish to join or leave a seceding area.
  • Setup an international court to adjudicate issues related to secession such as loss of business or property.
  • Vote first on what percentage of votes indicates zone secession and what conditions the entire secession should not occur. As an example, the zones interested in secession might not want to secede if there were less than a certain number of zones in agreement.
  • Vote on the secession (with international observers).
  • For zones passing the secession, invoke the period of allowed migration.
  • Establish a temporary constitution based on a UN template or the old constitution (if appropriate).

For a "technical coup", the recipe might be -

  • Determine which government bodies are no longer recognized.
  • Determine how long transition from the old bodies to the new can last.
  • Explicitly declare how old state actors might be impacted by future government, for example
    - Determine which old government bodies, organizations, or cultures groups need to be protected against retribution and how.
    - Determine which old government bodies, organizations, or cultural members might expect future proceedings against them due to previous regime's actions.
    - Determine the means by which resistant state actors can exit the jurisdiction peacefully. 
  • Establish a temporary constitution based on a UN template.
  • Setup a mechanism for choosing new government body members and transition road maps (which might have its own templates).
  • Invoke the transition.

For a country like West #Papua for example, the indigenous people might say "We would like to invoke secession recipe 2013-883 with these appended parameters using template constitution 2014-4041 and charter of rights 2014-4042.

These are just simplified examples. I suspect there are people that have actually gone through such upheavals that could write better examples.

I know it's unlikely that such recipes would end the conflict associated with regime change, but they might shorten the conflict because all sides know the objective. The uncertainty that keeps people riding the fence between factions can be reduced, hopefully encouraging a resolution.

I also know it's naive to expect any nation to spend money (even at the UN) funding a program which might support its own downfall or a diminution of powers, but perhaps an NGO or University might.

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